Lazio and Milan will meet in the Round of 16 of the Coppa Italia on December 4, 2025, at 20:45 local time. Both sides are determined not to see their cup ambitions end this early.
Our Prediction for Lazio vs Milan
Lazio narrowly missed out on European football last season, losing sixth place to Fiorentina only on tie-break criteria after both finished with 65 points. Maurizio Sarri returned in the summer but endured a difficult start. From late September onward, however, Lazio put together an impressive unbeaten stretch, broken only by Inter. After a confident win over Lecce, they met Milan in the league and were unable to respond to Rafael Leão’s decisive strike.
Milan, on the other hand, lifted only the Super Cup last season, shortly after Sergio Conceição replaced Paulo Fonseca during a disappointing campaign. They crashed out early from the Champions League, fell to eighth in Serie A after finishing second in 2024, and then lost the Coppa Italia final to Bologna. Massimiliano Allegri has since returned to the bench. Although he opened with a 1-2 defeat to Cremonese, by November he had guided Milan to the top of the table. Still, their autumn form included several draws, despite narrow wins over Parma and a gritty derby victory against Inter. Milan also defeated Lazio again shortly afterward, once more by the smallest of margins.
Lazio enter the Coppa Italia at this stage, while Milan—last season’s finalists—have already eliminated Bari (2-0 in August) and Lecce (3-0 in September) without much difficulty.
Key Statistics and Trends
Lazio have lost only two of their last nine matches.
Lazio average 1.15 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per match.
Only 8% of Lazio’s matches end with both teams scoring; their average total goals is 1.92.
Milan have won their last two matches by a one-goal margin.
Milan average 1.46 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per match.
46% of Milan’s games end with both teams scoring, averaging 2.15 total goals.
Probable Starting Lineups
Lazio (probable lineup): Provedel – Marušić, Romagnoli, Gila, Lazzari – Bašić, Cataldi, Guendouzi – Zaccagni, Dia, Isaksen
Milan (probable lineup): Maignan – Pavlović, Gabbia, De Winter – Estupiñán, Ricci, Modrić, Fofana, Saelemaekers – Rafael Leão, Nkunku
Previous Matches: Lazio vs Milan
Milan enjoyed three consecutive victories in this fixture, but last season they collected only one point across two league meetings.
Free Prediction for Lazio vs Milan
Milan remain slight favorites due to their stronger squad and better recent results. However, given both teams’ defensive tendencies, this match is unlikely to produce many goals. Our recommended pick is Under 2.5 total goals.
Betting Odds Analysis
Outcome | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
Under 2.5 Goals | 1.68 | Both teams defend well; recent meetings have been tight |
Milan Win | 2.05 | Visitors in better form; Allegri’s side efficient in big games |
Draw | 3.30 | Tactical, low-scoring match increases draw probability |
Lazio Win | 3.70 | Possible at home but less likely against Milan’s structure |
Both Teams to Score – No | 1.60 | Lazio’s very low BTTS rate supports this pick |
