Match date and local time: February 23, 2026, 21:00 CET
The 25th round of La Liga features a tense relegation-battle clash as Alavés host Girona in Vitoria. Both teams are hovering above the drop zone, and a win here could create valuable breathing room heading into the decisive spring period. With survival pressure mounting, tactical discipline and mental resilience will be crucial.
Alavés Season Overview
Alavés confirmed last season their status as a stable mid-table side, finishing 15th with 42 points. This campaign, despite losing roughly half of their matches, they have shown marginal improvement in competitiveness.
After suffering a couple of setbacks, they secured a valuable draw against Sevilla in the previous round, a result that reinforced their defensive organization. In Copa del Rey action, they advanced impressively before falling to Real Sociedad in the semi-finals.
Statistically, Alavés struggle offensively, averaging just 0.88 goals per match while conceding 1.25. Their matches are generally low-scoring, with an average total of 2.13 goals and 54% ending with both teams scoring.
Girona Season Overview
Girona have experienced dramatic swings over the past two seasons. From a sensational third-place finish in 2024 to narrowly avoiding relegation the following year, their trajectory has been unpredictable. This season began poorly, including an early cup exit, and for a time they were trapped in the relegation zone.
However, winter form brought renewed optimism. A series of improved performances helped them climb clear of danger, culminating in a stunning Monday victory over Barcelona — a result that significantly boosted morale and market perception.
Even with recent improvement, Girona average only 1.0 goal scored per match while conceding 1.58. Their defensive vulnerability remains a concern, though 58% of their matches see both teams scoring, and the average total goals per match is 2.58.
Key Statistics and Trends
Alavés have won three of their last seven matches
Girona have not lost two consecutive matches
54% of Alavés games end with both teams scoring
58% of Girona games end with both teams scoring
Alavés average 0.88 goals scored per match
Girona concede 1.58 goals per match
Head-to-Head Record
Girona hold the historical edge, winning half of the last eight official meetings and losing only twice. This record gives the visitors psychological confidence, especially after their recent statement victory.
Professional Handicap Movement and Odds Trends
The Asian handicap market opened close to level, with Girona slightly favored at 0 (draw no bet) or -0.25 in early trading. Following Girona’s high-profile win over Barcelona, public money quickly leaned toward the visitors, pushing the line more firmly toward Girona -0.25.
However, bookmakers have shown resistance in extending the line further, indicating respect for Alavés’ home advantage and generally tight defensive structure. The total goals line opened at 2.25 and has seen minor upward movement, though not aggressively, reflecting the balance between Alavés’ low-scoring style and Girona’s defensive issues.
The double chance market on Girona has drawn consistent volume, especially around odds in the 1.60 range.
Trading Direction Analysis
Early market action has been influenced heavily by recency bias. Girona’s win over Barcelona triggered strong public support, especially among casual bettors seeking momentum-driven value.
Sharp bettors, however, appear more measured. While acknowledging Girona’s improved form, professional traders recognize the volatility of backing a team that concedes 1.58 goals per match. As a result, much of the smart money has focused on Girona draw no bet or double chance rather than outright win markets.
The total goals market remains balanced, with no strong directional push, suggesting traders anticipate a competitive but controlled contest.
Market Psychology
Psychologically, Girona enter with elevated confidence and media attention after their upset victory. This creates a momentum narrative that often inflates market sentiment in favor of the recent giant-killer.
Alavés, on the other hand, operate under survival pragmatism. Their approach is typically conservative, especially at home, where avoiding defeat is often prioritized over expansive play.
The betting market reflects this contrast: emotional momentum versus structural caution. In such fixtures, avoiding defeat can hold greater value than chasing outright victory.
Free Prediction
Given Girona’s improved form and historical edge in this matchup, they possess enough quality and confidence to avoid defeat. However, considering Alavés’ defensive tendencies at home, the safer selection lies with Girona double chance, backing the visitors to take at least a point.
