French Cup Round of 16
February 4, 2026
Kick-off: Evening, local time in France (CET)
Venue: Allianz Riviera
Nice vs Montpellier – Match Analysis and Betting Preview
The Coupe de France Round of 16 offers a tense all-Ligue clash as Nice welcome Montpellier. With both clubs enduring disappointing league campaigns, this cup fixture represents a rare opportunity to rescue the season and reset momentum.
Team Form and Season Context
Nice entered the current campaign with high expectations after finishing fourth last season, edging Lille on goal difference with 60 points. However, European competition exposed their fragility. Two identical 0–2 defeats to Benfica ended their Champions League hopes early, and the Europa League campaign was even worse, producing just one win alongside seven losses.
Domestically, instability has been the defining theme. Defensive issues have dragged them dangerously close to the relegation zone, highlighted by a humiliating 1–5 defeat to Toulouse under Claude Puel. Still, Nice have shown flashes of their attacking potential, most notably in a dominant 4–1 win over Brest.
Montpellier’s situation is even more dramatic. They were the worst team in Ligue 1 last season, finishing with a historically low tally of just 16 points. Relegation followed, and life in Ligue 2 has been uninspiring, with the club stuck around mid-table. That said, recent wins over Bastia and Guingamp suggest a modest improvement in confidence and organization.
Cup Performance So Far
Nice’s path to this stage has been relatively short but tense. They eliminated Saint-Étienne 2–1 and then survived a penalty shootout against Nantes after a 1–1 draw. Neither performance was dominant, but both underlined Nice’s attacking intent and defensive vulnerability.
Montpellier, in contrast, have taken the long road. They knocked out Agde, Monsu, Canet, and Metz—all away from home—and remarkably did so without conceding a single goal. While impressive on paper, these clean sheets came largely against lower-level opposition and may not fully translate against Ligue 1-quality attackers.
Nice vs Montpellier: Key Stats and Trends
Nice have lost only one of their last four matches
Nice average 1.32 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per match
68% of Nice matches end with both teams scoring, with an average total of 3.21 goals
Montpellier have won their last two matches
Montpellier average 1.14 goals scored and exactly 1 goal conceded per match
43% of Montpellier matches see both teams scoring, with an average total of 2.14 goals
Head-to-Head Overview
Nice have had the edge in recent encounters, winning two of the last four meetings and losing only once. Matches between these sides tend to be open, with defensive mistakes often deciding the outcome rather than tactical control.
Probable Starting Lineups
Nice (probable):
Dupé – Bard, Manzunga, Ba, Clauss – Ndombele, Vanhautte, Sanson – Diop, Lushe, Wahi
Montpellier (probable):
Dzodic – Mincarelli, Muanga, Laporte, Tchato – Omeragic, Everson, Issufu, Savanier, Peis – Mendy
Professional Market Movement and Odds Analysis
The opening goal line for this match was set at 2.25, but early market activity quickly pushed it to 2.5, with some bookmakers testing 2.75. This upward movement reflects professional confidence in an open, chance-heavy encounter rather than a cautious knockout tie.
The match odds show Nice as clear favorites, but handicap markets remain relatively flat, indicating skepticism about their ability to control the game defensively. Instead of backing Nice outright, sharp bettors are focusing on totals and both-teams-to-score positions.
Trading Direction and Market Psychology
From a trading perspective, the market shows a clear preference for goal-based bets. Bettors are fading the narrative of a “tense cup battle” and instead pricing in defensive instability on both sides.
Public money tends to favor Nice due to home advantage and name value, but professional traders are exploiting their leaky back line. Montpellier’s recent clean sheets may attract casual under bettors, yet experienced market participants recognize the step up in attacking quality they now face.
The psychological setup also supports goals: both teams see the cup as a season-saving opportunity, reducing incentives for conservative play, especially if an early goal is scored.
Free Prediction for Nice vs Montpellier
Nice remain favorites, but their defensive record makes a controlled victory unlikely. Montpellier have enough confidence and structure to contribute offensively, especially on the counter.
Recommended bet:
Total Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.70
Expected scoreline:
Nice 2–1 or 2–2 Montpellier
